Deflation’s Grip: Gold Slide . . . Stocks Rocking . . . Cattle Off . . . Wheat Woes . . . Diesel Sputters . . . Canola Price Heave

Deflation . . . That’s a word main stream media doesn’t want to talk about. But it is starting to get tough to ignore the general downturn-in-prices . . . from real estate, vehicles, orange juice, cocoa, wheat, corn, energies, the list goes on . . . the price path of least resistance heading into the 2nd half of 2025 appears down.

Apparently, the U.S. isn’t in recession, but that depends where the goal line is drawn. But the fact-of-the-matter is; U.S. GDP has turned negative. Translation; The American economy is shrinking, along with global economies. Yet the stock market recovers and roars to record highs on Friday . . . .

Fed chair Powell is in the hot box these days. His boss or not his boss, President Trump isn’t pleased with the Fed holding U.S. rates steady. Apparently, Powell’s head is on-the-chopping-block. A more dovish Fed chair will clearly take over the reins. A Fed chair the President can better control.

Commodities got a shiner this week, a black eye. Most every thing dropped, except the cattle board. But cash cattle (as did wholesale beef prices) leaned lower once again. Live and feeder cattle were clearly overjoyed as the stock market rallied. But the math just isn’t adding up. Investors are stampeding back into equities convinced the 12-day war between Israel and Iran is over.

Let’s take a look at these markets. Where do buyers and sellers lie now? Stock markets are ripe with confident buyers. The ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ is mentioned. Rates are apt to go down. July cuts are likely. But the commodity world paints an entirely different story . . . .

Errol’s is totally reader-supported. Please consider a paid subscription to receive all updates, full access to reports, podcasts and alerts.