To Start the Week . . . .

THOUGHTS TO START THE WEEK: Grain markets apt to start in-the-green. China has been buying U.S. soybeans ahead of the Biden / Xi meeting in San Francisco this week. A common goodwill gesture ahead of key political meetings. Bulls talking up Brazil heat rallying soybeans further. But beans now technically overbought.

Wheat futures should start higher. But gains muted on Black Sea discounts. Cash durum prices could leg higher into early 2024. Global supplies are tight for pasta-makers.

Corn has been the weak link of grains, off another 3%. Corn chart technicals look awful on abundant supplies / weak exports. Corn vulnerable to further weakness into fresh contract lows.

Bankers are now in-recession. Yes, you heard right. Bankers are experiencing a contraction in lending. This hasn’t happened since 2008. Also, money supply is actually shrinking, a 90-year rarity. This screams deflation. More banks will struggle to survive. More layoffs in financial industry.

Precious metals are troubled. Huge dive in Palladium and Platinum last week. Gold down 3% over past week.

Diesel fuel futures off 15% recently to a one month low. Gasoline fallout. Crude oil lost 4% last week. But Middle East volatile, choppy. Key WTI support ear $73.50 with resistance at $80 per barrel.

Huge slide in feeder cattle recently into oversold territory. Major Jan support at $220/cwt. Due for a bounce.

Loonie weak on oil fallout and USD strength. A challenge of 72 cent CAD possible.

And a guess on Bitcoin. Recent rally won’t hold. Selloff day could be vicious for cryptos, but until then . . . .

Stay tuned to Errol’s Commodity Wire.